The Final 67
The unofficial mid-way point of the season is wrapped up pending the league-wide off-day today. In reality, in terms of games, the numbers are not favourable for the Jays. We’ll get to that later…
First, I need to give credit where credit is due. A.J. Burnett on Sunday afternoon; coming off short rest and dominating the Yankees. He kept his pitch count low, only 98, through 8.1 innings; scattering 6 hits and only allowing 1 run, which was a solo blast by Jason Giambi in the 9th. He got a deserving ovation from the crowd and it was one of a handful of times (especially this season) that the fans and Burnett were on the same page; both excited at what was unfolding. I tip my cap to him and what he did after only 3 days off. He’s the probable starter for Friday’s game in Tampa Bay. Get out your coins.
What a great All-Star Game too! It seemed at one point though that Dan Uggla was hell-bent on giving the AL the win. Does anyone else see the irony in an all-star player recording 3 errors?
The Jays fell just short of the .500 goal (would’ve been .505). However given their play as of late, I think .495 and only 9.0 games back is pretty damn good relatively speaking. Let’s look at some theoretical numbers to see what needs to be done for a legitimate shot at the playoffs….
At 47-48 there are 67 games left to play. I’m going to say 95 wins will earn a postseason spot. This means the Jays need to win 48 of the next 67. That means a 48-19 record. Which is an obscene .716 winning percent. To put it into perspective, the Jays have 21 series left to play. On average they need to win every series and a little bit more, given that 4 of those are 4-game sets. Let’s say they do just that; only drop 1 game per series (we’re stretching it I know, but bear with…) so that puts them at 46-21, a .687 stretch; 93-69 overall (.574).
Let’s compare to the Rays, who are currently leading the Wild Card race with a 55-39 (.585) record. If Tampa Bay is able to stay consistent through the second half they are in the playoffs. A 40-28 record should be enough. That works out to a .588 win percentage; which is right on their current pace.
And this doesn’t even take into consideration the Red Sox. It’s shaping up to look like the A.L. East will hold the Wild Card; though the Twins are only 2.5 back of the Rays.
What it comes down to is this: there are still 5 teams between the Jays and the Rays in the Wild Card standings. The fate of this season is out of their hands. Yes, they need to do the winning part; but at this point it doesn’t gurantee them anything. They need wins with plenty of help to go with it. Unless a drastic turnaround comes quickly it’s going to be rough. Playing .700 ball over that stretch of time is no easy task for any team. Impossible? No. Improbable? Let’s see where they sit at the end of July.
Limping To The All-Star Break
The dreaded Injury Bug which has plagued the Jays for the past year and a half just keeps on biting.
There is bad news, and less bad news that has come up in the last couple of days.
First, the bad news. Vernon Wells. DL. Again. His strained hammy will keep him out until at least mid-August. That is a major blow to a team who wanted to pretend like the season still had life. Though last time he was out the Jays managed to go 15-11; it’s never easy when your franchise position player goes down.
Second, the lesser of the bad news. Dustin McGowan appears to have escaped the knife as his MRI showed no new damage. He’ll get a 2nd opinion just to double check, but if conservative treatment is what is required, consider it a small blessing. He’s only out probably until the same time Wells gets back; compared to what easily could’ve been a lost season.
The Disabled List total is now at 13 Jays, with Wells the only one to appear twice. Compared to last season, where they sent 16 players (13 different) total. The difference between this season to last has to do with depth. Toronto definitely has more options this year to fill in the gaps as needed without total destruction of the lineup.
It’s definitely a blow to any attempt at a run. But if they can hang in there until players get healthy who knows.
They just have to do what they’ve become so accustomed to. Grind it out one game at a time.
Jays Grind Out Series Sweep
The faint glimmer of .505 is still within reach. Last night Toronto defied their season odds yet again and rallied late to complete the sweep of the Baltimore Orioles.
Using productive outs and (do I dare say) timely hitting Toronto has apparently finally showed up to play baseball. Though the power is seriously out (scoring 22 runs in the last 3 wins with 0 homeruns) the Jays have shown some creativity in producing runs.
How about Adam Lind? Ninth inning, bases loaded, tie-game, 2 out. A lefty-vs-lefty matchup. The kid pulls through in the clutch. The confidence Cito shows in him is starting to show through him and the more at-bats and the more pressure situations he’s in the better he learns and the better player he becomes.
Back-to-back walkoffs, after a season of none, have the Jays on a mini-roll winning 4-of-5 heading into tonights opener against the Yankees.
New York is doing what everybody knew they would do, as they’ve done it every year for the past few now. Mid-season surge. New York sits 6.5 back of Tampa Bay, the Jays are 10.5 back (closing the gap, slowly but surely). Toronto has a chance to pull within 1 of the Yanks and can sit them right in the middle of the A.L. East pack after the weekend.
Tonights matchup should be a good one. Joba Chamberlain vs Roy Halladay. I like the Jays chances heading into the series until Sunday. The finale might be a bit sketchy as a spot start is needed from Brian Tallet against Andy Pettitte. Saturday it’s Litsch vs Darrell Rasner which isn’t exactly your prime-ticket matchup.
Overall I would give this series edge to the Jays. How they come out tonight is important. At least with Doc on the mound a quailty start is expected. Joba will likely be fairly dominant the first time through the lineup. Hopefully the Jays can exploit some pitches as the game progresses.
Toronto has played okay the past few games. They need to come out sharper in the earlier innings though against New York as compared to Baltimore. Come from behind walk-offs are no easy task against this Yankee team.
Solid pitching and some good swats here or there are all you can ask for. Keep up the momentum and start out the series on positive note.
Go Jays Go
Jays Walkoff!
Wow! A walkoff! First of the season, which is nice to get 90 games in. Also, it was their first come from behind victory when trailing after 7 innings…..as sickening as it is, they were 0-35 before last night. But, with the dramatic win the hopes of .505 before the Break are intact.
Clutch hitting wins ball games….maybe someone should have told this to Toronto in April. Four runs scored with 2 outs….not too shabby.
Rios and Wells. That can be a lethal 3-4 spot if they can get their act together.
Often times though it’s a win like that that can get a team moving. If last nights game did anything to light a spark then tonight, in theory, should be a hit-fest. They need to learn to ride the rolls as they come and build on them. They’ve done a good job of doing it in reverse this season accumulating the losses, time to turn it around.
Now the head office, particularly GM J.P. Ricciardi even said himself the chances of being a playoff team “probably aren’t good that way”.
But it’s only the All-Star Break. Much much stranger things have happened in a shorter period of time in this game (e.g. the Mets anyone?!).
So let’s throw some hypothetical numbers out there.
Jays are 12.5 back right now of the Rays, who sit 3 up on Boston (that puts Toronto 9.5 back of Boston….obviously). If (big if) the Jays sweep out the last 5 games let’s put them at 10.5 of Tampa Bay. (Tampa is playing NY, then off to Cleveland for 4…we’ll give the Jays +2 games for argument sake).
And just for kicks let’s say Boston catches up, so at the All-Star Break the Jays trail Boston and Tampa Bay by 10 games (roughly).
Toronto’s first series back is at Tampa Bay. Boston is out West to play the Angels. Right there is an opportunity to pick up 2-3 games.
Toronto then goes to Baltimore, Tampa stays home to Oakland, Boston @ Seattle…..The Jays should win in Baltimore, Boston in Seattle, maybe Oakland plays the Rays tough….give it even or for the heck of it Toronto +1 more game.
The next series is Toronto in Seattle….whom they’ve struggled against this year (2-6); but say the Jays are hot at this point and sweep. Boston meanwhile is home to New York, so those teams will beat eachother up, Jays gain at least 1 on Boston. Tampa Bay is at KC; so there’ll be no difference between Jays-Rays.
Finally, to close out July, Tampa Bay comes to Toronto, and Boston hosts the Angels. A nice little home flip-flop from the first series. And a chance to make up some serious serious ground in the division by the end of July. Then August is a whole other story.
My point is, let’s not dismiss the season as a total write off yet. Now, if the Jays keep stuck in the .500 trap then yes, the season is toast. But, they have an opportunity immediately after the All-Star Break to get right back into the thick of things.
It all starts with the next 5 games and a good win last night to get things into gear.
Burnett goes against LHP Garrett Olson tonight.
Let’s get this ball rolling.
Go Jays Go
The Ups and Downs of Alex Rios
So, as we all know by now, Rios is having a crappy power year. However, I found a cool site that has stats coming in all directions (it’s called baseball-reference.com….the link to the Jays page is http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2008.shtml ) so let’s take a look to see how bad his year really is….
He’s 3rd on the team in Batting Average at .277, behind Wells (.288) and Rolen (.284). Now the fact that the Jays don’t even have a .300 hitter is another case in its own.
Rios leads the team in numerous categories (for better or worse)….
Slugging % – tied with Overbay at .393
AB – 336
Runs – 46
Hits – 93
Singles – 64
Doubles – 23
Total Bases – 132
Stolen Bases – 16
Strike Outs – 75 (He has a rather large lead in that category)
Total Outs – 263
Here’s some numbers that will drive you nuts….clutch hitting:
2 Out RISP – Batting .125 with 3 RBI
BUT….
Late and Close (defined by 7th inning or later, batting team tied, ahead by 1, or tying run at least on deck) – BA of .339 with 19 Hits and 6 RBI.
One can argue it’s situational hitting that’s the problem; but that’s all relative to the situation.
So, before we hang him out to dry, we need to consider the season as a whole. Yes, the power numbers are down, but that’s not just Rios. No one even has double digit homeruns on this team yet!! Stairs and Wells have 8!
These numbers don’t lie; the power is out but the production is still there.
Now the negative person will say that it proves the point that if Rios is leading the Jays in most offensive categories and he’s still playing like crap that sums up their season. But the thing is he is not playing all that bad.
All I’m saying is don’t give up on Alex Rios just yet. He’s not the only one not hitting HR’s but at least he’s leading the way in plenty other areas so we shouldn’t be too quick to tear him apart.
This might have been a rough year (for a lot of Jays) due to contract extensions. Players sign big money, freaks them out a bit in the head. Who knows. With this core locked up though this could be a learning season for everyone. But we’re still only half-way through this season, plenty of time to turn things around; this season and beyond.
9 Games Until The Break
The All-Star Break is almost upon us. I for one find it a bit sad. It’s a 4 day halt to the season. Now granted it is totally warranted (the resting period), and fun to watch the Derby and the Game itself; but it’s still disappointing when baseball isn’t on.
Something really cool happened today as well. The new Sports Illustrated Power Rankings guy Gennaro Filice gave a cool name drop in this weeks PR’s.
Check it out at:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/gennaro_filice/07/03/filice.PR0703/index.html?eref=T1
Basically a couple weeks ago I had dropped a comment to him about Eckstein’s error in Toronto against the Cubs, he responded to me, then I to him again. This was last week; then last night I check SI.com (my homepage, it’s simple) and lo and behold, I’m in the Power Rankings.
So thanks Mr. Filice! Keep up the good work!
Now, on to some Blue Jays.
So I take a gap between entries (un-intentionally….time just flew) and my previous entry was when Burnett was pitching against the Reds. Here we are, 9 games later, and Burnett is on the mound against Jered Weaver in the opener in L.A. Now I’m not going to rip on A.J. anymore (for the time being), seeing as he has produced the past couple of starts; 2-0 with a 0.60 ERA to be exact. I’m not questioning his stuff, no one is. It’s just the consistency factor. So let’s see what he does tonight before I say anything else. As a side note….assuming Burnett will opt out anyways, how about Erik Bedard for A.J. Burnett, plus we get some draft picks or prospects or cash or something. Plus, Bedard is Canadian, I think he’d pitch well here. Just a thought.
Cito Gaston is 6-6 since his return. Welcome to the land of inconsistency. However, I will say as a whole this team looks better. The hitting has shown signs of life and they look like a team that’s almost ready to take that corner only they still stumble on more than the odd occasion. After dropping the series to Seattle (the finale was the rarity of the bats producing and the pitching failing….go figure) the Jays find themselves needing to go 7-2 to get to .500. That means sweep at least 1 of 3 series and still win the other 2. If, and I mean if, they happen to really stink it out for any 1 of the remaining 3 please please let it be this upcoming one out west. The next 2 are at home to division teams….the key to the entire season lies within the division.
After the Angels, 6 of their next 7 series are against divisonal foes. Home to Baltimore, New York, (then All-Star Game), visiting Tampa and Baltimore, then a series back home against Seattle and home to Tampa Bay again. Who would’ve thunk that come All-Star time the Rays-Jays series’ would be so huge?
How about Adam Lind eh? Take the pressure off of him to perform and just like that he shows off his potential. Maybe the fresh young face with the big bat can be the catalyst to this offence?
The Jays need to quit this .500 pattern they are in. Win a stretch, lose a stretch, or in this case every-other-game for a few. It’s the signs of a typical .500 team: not good enough to win enough, but not bad enough to lose too much….just enough of both to drive you insane. I think if they stick to their current game plan and trust it we can see some good things to come. Everyone is still getting used to the new faces around the clubhouse. By the time the Jays get to Detroit (August 11-14….I plan on attending at least 2) we should have a more clear picture of what the remaining month and a half will be like. But, can’t look that far ahead, especially given their situation, it’s one game at a time.
Welcome Home Cito
Cito Gaston makes his first appearance (again) as Toronto’s manager, 11 years since he left in 1997. Oh the glory days. At least if anything he’ll get a great welcoming back; funny how nostalgia works. Enough with the past, let’s look forward and win some ball games.
The news on Shaun Marcum is good! Slight ligament strain, yet he has been okay’d to start to throw as early as Saturday. The earliest he can come back is for the start of the a weekend series July 5 against the Angels out west. Look for him to join the team back home later that week. For the full story check out:
Courtesy of Jordan Bastian, the Blue Jays beat writer for mlb.com.
So I crunched some numbers just for fun. Cito said he wanted the Jays to be back at .500 by the All-Star Break. They’re currently 5 games under; so no sweat right?
The Jays have 18 games to play until the Break (6 series of 3 games), and they have already played 77 games (36-41). That means at the All-Star Break they will have played 95 games total, and to be playing .505 ball (48-47) they need to go 12-6 over their next 18 games. With 6 series to play, the Jays can only afford to drop 1 game per series (win 2 of 3) each series.
They are at home against the Reds and Braves, then out West to Seattle and L.A., finishing up back home against Baltimore and New York.
So what it comes down to is the Jays need to play .667 ball to get back to .500. If Cito can turn this mess of a season around and get back square by the Break then I would say things are definitely heading in the right direction.
The Jays need to go into the All-Star Break as one of the hottest teams in baseball and they need to use the time off to rest and come back for the 2nd half of the season ready to go.
This run right now is their season. They can’t afford to be 10 games back after the break; I’d give them 7 at the most to still want an outside chance.
Side note: John Donovan in a recent article on SI.com gave the Blue Jays 100-1 odds of making the postseason with Gaston in control. Check out the article:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/john_donovan/06/23/donovan.Windup623/index.html
The Jays are hosting the Reds tonight, with my favourite pitcher on the mound, A.J. Burnett (6-7; 5.42 ERA). (Note: That IS sarcasm; check entry a couple of days ago re: Burnett Has To Go for more info).
Here’s a few numbers on Burnett, just to reiterate my point.
His past 3 games he is 1-2 with an 11.30 ERA. Those games combined for 14-1/3 innings (which is a little over 4-2/3 per start); 18! runs on 22! hits; with 17 K’s and 12 BB.
At Home this year he is 3-3 with an 8.16 ERA.
And the Jays are paying him how much??? (5 year, $55 million for the record).
The guy is a career .500 pitcher (75-73) with multiple stints on the DL and a pretty crappy attitude to boot.
But enough negative…he’s taking the mound for the Jays tonight so I may as well hold my breath and hope for the best. Maybe he’ll have one of those games where he appears to be ace material; or maybe he’ll fall back to mediocrity or below.
The 2 sides of A.J. Burnett are definitely a coin-flip.
Reds @ Jays, 7:07 ET.
Go Jays Go
W?
I witnessed the damndest thing on Sunday afternoon…..a Blue Jays win. That’s right folks, after losing 7 in a row that horrid streak is over, but they are far from being out of serious trouble. A 20-10 May paved the way for a surprisingly crappy June. Currently at 5-14 they are guaranteed a losing month, with their best record possible being 12-14. At this rate I’d be satisfied to escape at 10-16. Granted, there are still 3 full months of ball to be played, but as we approach the official and unofficial (All-Star Break) mid-way point, they’re currently 10.5 games back of Boston (and 9 back of Tampa Bay as disgusting as that is). They are going to need to tear it up the last half, and so far the signs are not pointing in that direction. Here’s hoping for a huge turnaround!
Ok, a few quick thoughts…..
- Let’s start with the obvious…..Cito Gaston back at the helm. I honestly don’t have much else to say aside from what’s being reported. A change was in the horizon and no one is surprised that Gibbons is gone. It’s too bad that the manager always gets the short end when the team plays like hell but hey, ’tis the nature of the game. It’s done now, so the only thing to do is look ahead; hopefully the fresh face will be enough to shake this team up and get the fire lit.
- I like the move already of Mench to the Minors and Lind to the Bigs. If Adam Lind is part of the future for this team, I 100% agree to have him up and take his hacks at this level. He’s been one of those young players who has struggled when being called up, yet is destroying minor leage pitching. Have him join the team, knowing he’s safe, and let him get comfortable at the plate. So what dose Lind do on his first full-day on the job? Battles an awesome at bat (it was a good 4-6 straight foul balls) before crushing a solo-shot. Well played!
- Marcum on the 15 day DL…..not good! Apparently the MRI shows nothing serious, hopefully that’s true. It’s the whole young-pitcher-inning-overload thing that scares me. However it’s been backdated to the 19th, and with today’s off-day the only start he’s scheduled to miss is Saturday. After that coupled with an off-day the first week of July he should be back to make his next start. Hopefully.
- I saw a stat yesterday that sums up the Jays offensive bust…..
Alex Rios – 3 HR; Greg Zaun – 4 HR
Egads!
So here we are, back home for 6 against very beatable teams (Cincy then Atlanta) starting Tuesday. Is this month somewhat salvageable? The season? Enough talk. Time to start really spitting out the W’s.
Oh a quick P.S…..I got myself a shiny new Blue Jays tattoo. (Yes for real, it’s the original logo). I got inked last Thursday (the 20th) so in a couple weeks when it’s all healed up I’ll post a pic.
Burnett Has To Go
I’m sitting here at work, listening to the finale of the Jays-Brewers on the radio and I’m about to throw my computer across the room.
Is A.J. Burnett a real pitcher?
He’s shown the physical strength to pitch in the bigs, but I am officially questioning his mental ability to handle it.
It’s the bottom of the 3rd and apparently Burnett was questioning the strike zone after falling behind 3-0. Who cares. As a professional it is up to you to adjust and suck it up and pitch to the Ump’s K Zone. So what does he do? What any predicatable minor league pitcher would do, not pitch; but just throw fastballs in the zone. Bam! 3-run jack.
Bullshit.
A.J. Burnett can only pitch when things are going his way. Any lapse of mentality tends to lead to amazingly costly mistakes. Case in point: Bottom of the 1st, 2 out. He then proceeds to give up 3 consecutive hits allowing 2 runs. That is uncalled for. Get your head in the game and don’t worry about anything else except the next pitch to throw. He can’t keep his emotions in check and it shows and is costly to his performance.
On top of the absolute disrespect he has recently shown towards the fans who suppported him and the questionable multi-million dollar signing (re: Mock hat-tip, openly saying he would like to pitch in Chicago). I don’t care if he tried to back track and say he is loyal to Toronto. I’ll believe that when I see it.
In my opinion Burnett is one of the biggest wastes of talent I’ve ever seen. I would rather a pitcher who tops out high 80s-low 90s yet can keep his F-ing head on straight in time of stress. (e.g. Marcum, Halladay…I’m sure the list across the board could fill pages).
Trade him. Soon. Even if it’s just for cash and draft picks, get this guy the hell out of our organization. Let him waste someone else’s time and money.
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